Monday, March 16, 2009

You Gon Sweat Your Outfit Out Trying To Dance Like Me

It's been celebrated, anticipated, and for the past month feared, but at long last here it is. Ladies and gentlemen, I give you the 2009 Baseball Predictions. This also doubles as the house's entry in the "Rick Russell knows more about baseball than I do" contest. Print it out. Put it on your wall, and watch the prognostications become reality. I'll give the overviews first, and then the actual numbers all together at the end.
To the American League first, the East in particular.
How about them Rays! For the first time since Jeter put pinstripes on, he was watching October baseball on his couch. That's right, every year from 1995 the Yanks were in the playoffs until last year, when the Rays surprised everyone, including their momma's. So what do the Bronx Bombers do? Only what they do best. Go out and get the best talent on the market. Sabathia, Texeiria, and even Burnett. And, they'll still be spending less this year than they did for the 89 win stinker they put up. Now, why did they end up with that few wins? Simple. Kennedy and Hughes were nowhere near what they had been hyped to be. Not even close. I said last year that they should have shipped them both for Johan paid that man his money, and I still say they should have done it. They would have made the playoffs easily, and the way things shake out, probably be celebrating A-rod's first title. (Side bar, had they won, and then the A-fraud/Yuri Sucart scenario unfolded, what a nightmare would that have been?)
Needless to say, they will be a contender all season long this year. The Rays won't be sneaking up on people, but still will be strong as they've kept their entire rotation, added Jason Isringhausen (yes I know he's on the decline and has been for years, but it's a great veteran presence for a very young staff) and Pat Burrell. Boston has been caught asleep at the wheel if you ask me. They should have done what was necessary to get Tex, even if that means moving Youk to third and benching Lowell. The Blue Jays and the Orioles... best of luck in the most loaded division in baseball. In the end, I'm giving this to, and yes it pains me to type it, the Yankees, followed by the Rays, Red Sox, Blue Jays and Orioles.
Central Division
A round of applause for the division champions White Sox. Good, now they need to get back to work. Kenny Williams, I'm looking at you. The usually active Sox have been extremely quiet this offseason. With only one trade and one signing, everyone, once again, is in the dark as to what the GM has in mind. The only concern is that I have no idea what they can do at this point in the year. A lot of big names are off the board, and a couple of the notable free agents are trying to earn contracts in the World Baseball Classic (The Netherlands?? Twice over the Dominicans? Really? I would have bet that Mike would buy a Carl Pavano jersey before that happened) but nothing seems promising, hence the Bartolo Colon signing. I kid you not, I'm raising my boys to be big league pitchers. As long as you can consistently hit 92 on the gun, it doesn't matter what you look like or what you've done before, you'll always have a job.
That smell in the room, that's the turd the Tigers laid last season. They made the biggest move in the offseason and dealt the bulk of their prospective talent for Willis and Cabrera. And wound up with 74 wins in dead last. Yikes. Cleveland was saved by Cliff Lee's ridiculous season from being the butt of all Central jokes. I'm not expecting a repeat performance by him. The Twins had a great team, but lost the division in the 163 game of the season. Now they've upgraded at third by picking up Joe Crede, but beyond that, much of the same for the Twinkies. Good, not great.
I'm taking the White Sox, then the Indians, Twins, Tigers, and Royals, in a close division.
West
When you win your division by 21 games, it's hard to say that any improvement made by other teams can close the gap. The Angels did lose K-rod, but Fuentes is a solid replacement. They also picked up Abreu, who is an upgrade over Garret Anderson in right. In the end, I call that a wash, but will have to take off a couple wins because the anomaly that was K-rod's saves record will not be repeated. Oakland, in what can only be described as anti-moneyball moves, acquired Giambi, Holliday, and Orlando Cabrera, all substantial upgrades. Is it enough to close the gap? I say no. Seattle gets Junior back (and if you don't know who I mean when I say Junior, I'm sorry for you. You truly have been deprived of one of the most celestial things) which should help ease the pain of watching everyone else on this team not named King Felix or Ichiro. How'd that Erik Bedard deal work out for you? Not good, huh? Texas has the great story of Josh Hamilton, but that's all they have. You don't win a division with a story. You can lose one, but you can't win one.
Give me the Angels, then the A's, Rangers, and Mariners
National League
East
To call the Phillies a fluke is not accurate. They played well and were in the right position for the past two years. It reminds of me of when Nick Faldo won the Master's because Greg Norman choked away a six stroke lead with 14 to play. Yeah, Faldo played well, but what mattered more was that Norman simply fell apart. As did the Mets. Just. Fell. Apart. I had no vested interest in that team, but it did make me hurt a little to watch it just slip away again after the nightmare of 2007. So what do the Mets do? Fix their shoddy bullpen. Twice. K-rod and JJ Putz come over to give them the best bullpen in the league. The Phillies return just as strong and ready to do some damage again, I just wonder if they have enough left in the tank after last year. We haven't a repeat champion since the yankees in 1999-2000 and haven't had a team go to the series in back to back years since the yanks in 2000-2001. And I don't see the Phillies ending that streak. Atlanta added a couple veteran arms, which should help, but not enough to become a contender with NY and Philadelphia. The Marlins are going to be my, not this year, but look out next year squad, just as the Rays were last year. They've got young talent and it's really starting to turn around. If their pitching can match their offense, they will take this division. I just don't think it will... this year. The Nationals... they're awful. I've watched a couple spring training games, and am wondering if they're holding tryouts. I think I could make their Double-A team.
Mets, Phillies, Marlins, Braves, Nationals
Central
The Cubs are still the premier team in this division, even despite the loss of Leon Johnson. The rest of this division is going to be battling closely for second. Except for the Pirates. They're battling against contraction.
Cubs, Cards, Astros, Brewers, Reds, Pirates.
West
Ask me how much I love Manny Ramirez. Bottomlessly. Everything he does entertains and excites me. I'll say it now, he should be MLB TV's first reality star. Manny being Manny. That's watch it live while you DVR it good.
Dodgers, D-backs, Giants, Rockies, Padres.
It's not obvious I care more about the American League than the National League is it?
Playoffs
ALDS
Yanks-White Sox (Yanks in 5)
Angels- Rays (Wild Card) (Rays in 4)

NLDS
Cubs-Dodgers (Dodgers in 4)
Mets-Cards(Wild Card) (Mets in 3)

ALCS
Yanks over Rays in 6

NLCS
Mets over Dodgers in 5

World Series
Yanks over Mets in 6

Individual Awards

All-Star Starters (in order around the diamond)
AL
Sabathia, Mauer, Tex, Pedroia, Arod, Jeter, Sizemore, Ichiro and Vlad
NL
Hamels, Russell Martin, Fielder, Utley, Wright, Reyes, Soriano, Manny, and Cameron Maybin

Cy Young
AL- Sabathia
NL- Hamels

MVP
AL- Tex
NL- Manny

ROY
AL- Elvis Andrus
NL- Cameron Maybin

Number of wins for each team
Yankees 98
Rays 97
Red Sox 92
Blue Jays 83
Orioles 68

White Sox 89
Indians 82
Twins 81
Tigers 80
Royals 68

Angels 96
A's 88
Rangers 80
Mariners 64

Mets 93
Phillies 86
Marlins 82
Braves 79
Nationals 57

Cubs 95
Cardinals 88
Astros 85
Brewers 81
Reds 71
Pirates 61

Dodgers 88
D-Backs 83
Giants 73
Rockies 71
Padres 68

Get your dollars bills out and your pens ready. Word.