I forget where the line is drawn separating the Modern Era of Baseball from the Pre-Modern Era, and I don't want to look it up right now, so I'm going to say 1941 starts the modern era. It was kind of a banner year. Ted Williams hit .406 and DiMaggio had his 56-game streak. (Guess who won the MVP that year? Joe D did. This, despite the fact that Williams led the league in Average, Slugging, On base, Home runs, runs, and walks [147 walks in 143 games]. New York bias.)
Seems like a good place in the sand to draw the line. I wanted to compile a list of the records established in the Modern Era that will never get broken, in order of most likely to be broken to least likely to ever be broken. (Side note: I started writing this on 7/14. On 7/15, ESPN ran a poll asking which record was least likely to get broken, since 1941. So, I guess I picked the right year.)
This will be one of the first, if not the first, posts that I will have to do the writing in parts, as I likely won't find all the ones worth listing in the first perusal, nor do I know them all off the top of my head. I know a lot of them that I don't think will ever get broken (Nolan Ryan's single season strikeout record, Ripken's consecutive game streak [Current active leader: Matt Kemp with 298. Not kidding.], and Barry Bond's intentional walks in a season are the most prominent ones), but some I'll have to research. I don't know how many bases Rickey Henderson stole in his prime, or how many wins Jamie Moyer garnered without ever throwing harder than 85.
In this case though, I don't mind the research. So, bear with me on this one. I'm only putting up 8. Why 8? Because I can't think of a ninth worth talking about.
8.) DiMaggio's 56 game hit streak. This one is going to be tough, but I feel that this is the classic monkeys with typewriters producing Shakespeare puzzle. Given that this one is about 70% skill and 30% luck, I'm fairly certain I'll see this one matched in my life time. And out of all the records listed, this is the one I want to have challenged. Nothing against The Yankee Clipper, but a 56 game hit streak would rivet the nation. People would start talking about baseball around work when they never had before. Your mothers and grandmothers would know about it. If you think I'm kidding, remember when McGwire and Sosa were chasing Roger Maris? Everyone was talking about it. Now, imagine that happening for a solid month? Everyday people asking the same question: Did he get a hit? For the record, I support any and all activities that get more people talking about baseball in a positive light.
7.) Nolan Ryan's single season strikeouts - 383. This one isn't as unbreakable as I first thought. Case in point, Randy Johnson had 372 in 2001. And he pitched 100 less innings, facing about 400 less hitters (The Big Unit was striking out people out more often then 1 out of every three he faced). But the reason why this is still on the list is because if Randy Johnson in his prime couldn't do it, who could? Everything is against pitchers today from breaking this record. The five man rotation, innings counts, bullpen specialization and utilization, PED's and the nutritional advances created in their wake. And here's the one I would like to mention - more pitchers throwing harder. This is counter-intuitive, but it makes sense. When Ryan was pitching, he was probably the only guy in the league rushing it up there at 100+. The most dangerous weapon in any pitcher's arsenal is the ability to change speeds and keep hitters off balance. Hitter back then were used to seeing fastballs in the upper 80s to low 90s. That's more or less what everyone could throw. So they develop a rhythm for that speed. Then, one day a week, Ryan takes the mound and is throwing 10 mph harder than what you're expecting. That's huge. It's would be akin to the first time someone developed a curve ball.
In today's game, every team has a starter that can touch mid to high 90s. They all don't have a Verlander who touches 99 in the 9th inning of a no-hitter, but they do have guys that are still throwing 95 in the 7th inning of a close game. There isn't a gap anymore. It's still hard to hit that speed, but you get a lot more practice when it's always that speed. No one is surprised by 99 mph anymore. in 1973, that was surprising. And that's why this one makes the list.
6.) Rickey Henderson's single season steals record - 130. Last year the league leader had 68. Who was that leader? Juan Pierre. Speed is still highly valued in baseball, just not on the basepaths. Rickey can thank Sabermetrics for all but assuring his record remains unassailed for years to come. The numbers tell us that steals are rarely worth the risk. There are a number of old school managers out there that still believe strongly in the advantages of getting the extra base, but they are few and far between, and will get roundly criticized when they run their team out of an inning.
5.) Barry Bonds walks and intentional walks in a season - 232 and 120. The second highest totals are both of those categories, by guys not named 'Bonds', are 60 less than his marks. He also holds the second and third highest single season totals, in both categories. These marks were record in his ridiculous season of 2004. He had an OPS of 1.422 and was hitting a home run every ninth at bat. But we're talking his walks here, and he got them by the boat load. During a weekend series against the Dodgers, he was walked 7 consecutive times. Twice he was walked all four times he came to plate, all four times intentionally. He was walked intentionally when the bases were loaded. Teams were more than willing to concede one run, than throw something in the strike zone. If you ever want to look at a dominating stat line for a hitter, his 2004 is hard to beat. It's only parallel is Bonds' own 2001 season, when he hit 73 jacks (or one per 6.5 at bats) and lead the league in BA, OBP, and Slugging. How he didn't get RBI's and take the triple crown, I'll never know. But for a four year stretch, he was simply over-sized head and shoulders above the league. Could you imagine if he still has the speed of his younger days when he was stealing 40 bases and was a Gold Glove left fielder? I just got goosebumps.
4.) Kerry Wood and Roger Clemens 9-inning game strikeouts - 20. You have to qualify the statement with "9-inning" otherwise the record goes to Tom Cheney who struck out 21 over 16 innings back in 1962. I didn't have a clue either. We've all grown. Here's why this one might not ever be broken. Last year, the Seattle Mariners were the worst hitting club ever assembled in the past 35 years. That's not hyperbole, it's statistical fact. And not even they were victims of a 20 strikeout or more game. If you want to make this record stand out even more, it means that if you don't have 6 strikeouts by the end of the fourth inning, you're not going to make it. You almost need to have some errors in the field so that the only outs come by way of strikeout. In fact, that was the only way I was able to get more than 20 in a video game. I had to actively move my fielders away from pop-ups, and have them not throw the ball on grounders. But that's a video game, and I also hit over 250 homers in a season.
3.) Atlanta Braves Consecutive Division titles - 14. I do need to put a small asterisk, as this was over a 15 year stretch, but since division titles were not awarded in the strike shortened season of 1994, we can omit that year altogether. 1991-2005, the Braves were the champs of their division. Every. Single. Year. The first three were in the bigger NL West, before realignment created three divisions in each league, and slotted the Braves in the NL East. Nothing mattered, they dominated, year in and year out. Behind ace pitching (between Smoltz, Glavine and Maddux, the Braves were awarded 6 Cy Young awards in this span), and surprising hitting, they just kept winning. They did get lucky a couple years, and did catch some breaks, but more often then not, they simply were better than the other teams in their division, and took care of their business.
What's hard to believe is how recent this was set. We have had 9 different World Series Champions in the last ten years. 14 different teams have reached the World Series in that time span. Needless to say, there is a substantial amount of parity in today's game. And yet, just 6 years ago, the Braves were half way through the last year of their dynasty. During the 90's, they represented the NL in 5 of the 9 World Series. You have to go back to the 50's Yankees of DiMaggio and Mantle to find any team that showed up to more than 50% of the decade's World Series (8 of 10), with only other team being Babe Ruth's Yankees of the 20's (6 of 10). It's just so difficult to imagine one team being on top of their division for so long. No team has even a five year streak going. Come to think of it, I don't think there's a team with more than 3 right now. So to have a streak lasting 15 years, my goodness.
2.) Bob Gibson's single season ERA - 1.12. This one has to be on the list because of when it was set, but it shouldn't be on the list for that same reason. The mound was higher, stadiums were bigger, and the ball wasn't wound nearly as tight as it is now. All of these things, coupled with Gibson being, frankly, awesome, combined to give us this ridiculous stat line. To give you a perspective, a really good pitcher will throw about 225 innings a year, give or take a dozen. That's about 32 starts going 7 innings per start on average. To beat Gibson's mark, he would only be able to allow 28 earned runs. Less than one per start. Pitchers have beaten that mark over a month or two, but all it takes is one bad start, and you're done. You give up six runs in a game, and forget about it. And in today's game, chances are you're going to give up six runs in one of those 32 starts.
1.) Cal Ripken Jr's consecutive games played streak - 2632. I don't know how high to put this one. Mostly, I don't know if I can put anything above it. It combines two elements that in today's game are contradictory: being really good, and being consistently healthy. You can't have one without the other. Case in point, look at the number of players who were absent for the All-Star game, despite being named to the team. They all took the game off to nurse some injuries. If you're going to be good enough to make the lineup, you have to play hard. And if you play hard, you're going to get hurt. There's no two ways about it. So, the odds that another player is going to come along and string together 16+ seasons of above average production, without missing a game, especially in this era where players are more likely to rest minor injuries than not, are minuscule. I don't have a lot of money, but I would bet all of it that this record will not fall. Certainly not in my life time. Unless they allow robots to play. Then all bets are off.
Word.
1 comment:
I remember when I was younger and hearing that the one record that would never fall would be Lou Gherig's consecutive games played record. Funny how time changes things.
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