Eleven and a half hours until the first spring training game. If you were to ask me how excited I am for this, it would be somewhere between getting ready for a first kiss with a girl and finding the tootsie roll bank in my Christmas stocking, a symbol and manifestation of the goodness that is Christmas. (Side bar: I would say that nine out of ten Christmases, it's all about the tootsie roll bank. Everything else is secondary to those sweet, chocolatey sugar globules. If you ever think to yourself, "What can I get Rick for [insert whatever]?" The answer is tootsie rolls. Or caramels.)
Yes I realize that these games mean absolutely nothing to the season other than getting a look at the prospects, but it's baseball. More than that, it's where I came to love the game. I was eight, and the Marlins had just been established. Fortunately, their spring facility was just twenty minutes away. Even more fortunately, my best friend got season tickets, four rows behind the third base dugout. Their father is a doctor, and so his ticket was almost always unused due to almost all spring training games starting at 1pm. That quickly became my ticket. Box 12, row 4, seat 6. Mine. All mine. I like to think that there is still an impression in the plastic seat from my pre-pubescent posterior. Can we just say that there is? Yep, we can. It's there.
Seeing the guys on the baseball cards in real life, took baseball from a mythical activity only see on the TV to something I could be a part of. I saw Johnny Damon, Tom Glavine, and Bobby Bonilla. I got my first foul ball off the bat of the great Terry Pendleton. The game became a part of me. Really, you can go ahead and mark the moment when I gave my soul to the rawhide gods when I picked up that foul ball. Sure, I had been following baseball for two years prior; checking box scores, watching sportscenter highlights, seeing an occasional White Sox game on WGN. Heck, by then I had two little league trophies on my shelf. But now, the big leagues became tangible.
This was my only exposure to professional ball until I caught my first regular season game when I was 16 or so and somehow convinced my dad and older sister to go to a Giants-Cardinals game in San Fran. I still don't know how that worked, but it did. Twice in fact that trip. And then, to top matters off, while flying back home, who do we run into at the airport: Willie Mays. I'm not making this up. I've met the "Say Hey Kid". Shook his hand and talked about his daughter. Even had him sign my ticket. I've been impressed when meeting only a handful of people. They are, in no particular order: Elder Russell M. Nelson, Richard E. Rich (the guy behind the animated Book of Mormon tapes), and Willie Mays. That's really it.
So basically, church, church, baseball. That's my priorities. Church is year round, so I don't get too excited about sacrament meeting. General Conference, a little, but not a lot. Spring Training, Opening Day, Trade Deadline, BYU Home Opener- these are days that I would argue should be holidays. You want me to miss this? You better have a fantastic reason. I've canceled appointments, skipped classes and re-planned dates to make them happen.
So, am I excited for tomorrow's slate of games? Sure, I guess. If marking the anniversary of the only passion that has never let me down, enjoying the only thing that always satisfies, anticipating seven months of following my beloved Chisox is exciting, then yeah, I guess I'm excited. Word.
Tuesday, February 26, 2008
Tuesday, February 19, 2008
He Doesn't Look a Thing Like Jesus, But He Talks Like a Gentleman
In case of any of you were wondering if you were the luckiest person alive, I can tell you right now, you're third at best. For the longest time I thought I was the luckiest person on the planet. Family is great, friends are always there for me, in general, things have just seemed to work out for me (medical school so far might be the first major setback... ever). I just assumed I was the luckiest person out there because I couldn't completely justify all the good fortune that went my way. But now, I've realized I'm second. When you get paid $4.3 Million to do nothing, and I mean nothing, you are the luckiest person alive. This isn't one of those jobs where you were trying to accomplish a goal, but it didn't work out, so really you're efforts were useless, this is a case where the guy is getting paid to sit at home and never show up to work at all. And this is why Keith Van Horn is now the luckiest guy on the planet. $4.3M and he is expected to never lace up his high-tops or sling on a jersey. His only expectation is to show up to receive the check and then leave. That's it. And there isn't a even a deadline set on that! Yes, he is the luckiest. There might be some out there thinking that Kirilenko's now infamous "freebie" makes him the luckiest, but they're a mistaken. How awkward is that situation? Especially around say thanksgiving? Do you think his wife has to ask if it's been used yet? No one wants that conversation. On the flip side, there is no bad conversation where the subject is "how I made $4.3M in the NBA without ever getting out of bed." Van Horn wins, going away.My only question is, did his agent negotiate how much his client was going to get? He had the leverage knowing that the both sides wanted the deal to go through, and if it didn't work, both GMs would look like Mike Dexter after Amanda Beckett shut the door on him. Seriously, can't you see the agent sitting across the table arguing "Now I know he hasn't played in two years, and he's not close to physical form suitable for play, but he's got to be worth at least $5M, but we'll settle for 4.3." Shrewd. Very shrewd.What you have to gleen from this is that yes, Keith Van Horn is arguably luckier than you'll ever be, but also that he saw a good deal when it came to him and he took it. He didn't look around, wondering if by stalling he could get an extra 500K, he saw the great opportunity and he closed on it like Rivera, vintage 1998. In truth, he probably could have held out for the extra money and gotten it. But he took what was offered and he ran with it.
I've been thinking (yes, I took advil for the cramps). How many people have I seen blow perfectly good opportunities to have relationships because they were looking for the bigger, better deal. This is why there are so many single people around here. People are so concerned about getting the best possible deal that they look past great options.
Let's call a spade a spade. I'm one heck of a catch. Yeah, it's true. I am. I'm a five tool player. But there are better guys out there. I can't fault the ladies for trying to get the best possible, but I do fault them for looking past perfectly fine guys because they're worried about missing out on something better. Here's what I'm realizing: You can keep trying to get something better, but you'll always end up dissatisfied.
By no means should you just settle (Unless you're a smoking hot, intelligent girl who sees me after reading this. You, you can settle for me. I'll live with that.) But realize that a good thing now is better than the potential of a good things later. At the end of everything, you're just trying to find someone that matches you best. They're not going to be perfect, and they're not going to have the most of all the things you're looking for, but they will have the optimal blend of those things.
This area just fosters an environment of everyone thinking they can do better than what they already have. Obviously, this is because girls see me and the other unbelieveably amazing guys, while the fellas see the bevy of beauties that grace this county. But please, just realize that life is good and take it for what it is.
If you're lucky enough to find someone who likes you enough to care about you, and you like them enough to care about them, then hold on for dear life. Like Keith Van Horn holding onto that $4.3M. Yeah, he's also got a wife. That's why he's still the luckiest person in the world. Word.
I've been thinking (yes, I took advil for the cramps). How many people have I seen blow perfectly good opportunities to have relationships because they were looking for the bigger, better deal. This is why there are so many single people around here. People are so concerned about getting the best possible deal that they look past great options.
Let's call a spade a spade. I'm one heck of a catch. Yeah, it's true. I am. I'm a five tool player. But there are better guys out there. I can't fault the ladies for trying to get the best possible, but I do fault them for looking past perfectly fine guys because they're worried about missing out on something better. Here's what I'm realizing: You can keep trying to get something better, but you'll always end up dissatisfied.
By no means should you just settle (Unless you're a smoking hot, intelligent girl who sees me after reading this. You, you can settle for me. I'll live with that.) But realize that a good thing now is better than the potential of a good things later. At the end of everything, you're just trying to find someone that matches you best. They're not going to be perfect, and they're not going to have the most of all the things you're looking for, but they will have the optimal blend of those things.
This area just fosters an environment of everyone thinking they can do better than what they already have. Obviously, this is because girls see me and the other unbelieveably amazing guys, while the fellas see the bevy of beauties that grace this county. But please, just realize that life is good and take it for what it is.
If you're lucky enough to find someone who likes you enough to care about you, and you like them enough to care about them, then hold on for dear life. Like Keith Van Horn holding onto that $4.3M. Yeah, he's also got a wife. That's why he's still the luckiest person in the world. Word.
Sunday, February 10, 2008
Fight, Till You Drop, Never Stop, Can't Give Up, Till You Reach The Top
While attending an anatomy lab this past week, we started going over names for different movements, like arm rotations or leg circles. To help reinforce the ideas, the TA decided to play a game of "Simon Says". Yes I know it's childish, but as Mr. Bueller let us know, so is school. There were six of us in the circle as we begun. I don't know when it happened but next thing I know, I'm crouching in attack position, bracing for whatever command and the all important Simon Says approval.
I play to win. In everything. I'm the one who keeps score in my head during the New Year's Eve Catchphrase battle of the sexes. Jeopardy for me is only enjoyable when I beat at least two of the three contestants. Otherwise, I'm upset for the next 45 to 75 seconds.
This is why I thoroughly enjoy any show that involves a competition and have watched every sport imaginable thanks to the two blessed channels of ESPN that have been piped into my TV since age 15. (Side note: Remember when ESPN2 first rolled out and it was only referred to as "The Deuce" and only on premium cable, like it was HBO or something? I honestly remember being envious of a kid in one of my classes because he had it and I was stuck with only one all sports channel. I think thats why I stopped hanging out with him. Will Corwin, now that ESPN2 is standard, we can be friends again.)
For example, I watch MTV's Real World/ Road Rules Challenge: The Gauntlet III and project which team is going to win. That's right, project, not guess. I know each of the contestant's skills and weaknesses and can closely predict how each are suited at the current challenge. Seriously. I'm not a spectator, I'm an analyst. Want to know what's going to happen? Here you go. The Veteran Team, which is unbelievably stacked but has more powder kegs than the spanish armada, is going to drop the next two-three women's duels in efforts to trim the fat. The women will counter at that point, but will probably not be too effective because the men are too strong. The only thing that could really derail them is after CT gets kicked off for hitting someone, Evan loses in the gauntlet by some miracle. The Rookies are screwed. Very screwed. They'll only win contests where A) the Vets toss them or B) having less people gives a distinct advantage. That's it. I would cut the check to the Vets tomorrow if I were running the show. It's all over but the shouting and the drama.
Here's what I want to get at though. Out of all the competition based shows, I think I'm best suited for American Gladiators or Are You Smarter Than a 5th Grader. Honestly, I could win both, in the same week. I would join Megan as the only multi-show winner. (With Kristie Jo's breakdown, she moves in front as the clear favorite in Rock of Love II, and earlier won Beauty and the Geek II. I'm not making this up. She picked up $125,000 for Beauty and will get Bret Micheals in Rock. Eat it Ken Jennings). I've thought about Jeopardy, and if it had been pre-mission I would have done excellent. The two years kind of knocked me out of the current events and I'm still getting back into form. Deal or No Deal is pure game theory with the key being not trying to get the million dollar case, but trying to max out the bid. You only need to keep three of the top eight dollar amounts and then eliminate all the lower ones until you have three tops amounts and two lower amounts left. This should give you a bid of around 200K. Take it and go. That's your magic number. If it ever cracks 250K, press the button like your life depended on it.
Pros vs Joes is out because they require more actual physical girth than I possess. Wheel of Fortune is for children and Razorback fans. (If you're wondering if I've done the hog call while wearing a plastic razorback on my head, the answer is emphatically yes, and the hog hangs on my wall this moment.) This leaves only AG and 5th grader as the best options. If I could I would join the next RR/RW challenge, but that requires logging a season in one of those shows prior. That would be fun, but a bit complicated after having been through the temple.
Here's what amazes me though. I think I have a better shot making AG, while I'm pretty sure I could take 5th grader, but won't make it. 5th grader is too hollywood-ized. They need intriguing backgrounds or overly animated contestants. The filtering process is much softer for AG. The physcial exam would be a test, but I'm supremely confident that I could properly prepare for it. Then, when I'm laying on top of foam blocks at the end of the eliminator, having Hulk Hogan call me brother, I'll know life can get no better. I just have to win. That's all. Word.
I play to win. In everything. I'm the one who keeps score in my head during the New Year's Eve Catchphrase battle of the sexes. Jeopardy for me is only enjoyable when I beat at least two of the three contestants. Otherwise, I'm upset for the next 45 to 75 seconds.
This is why I thoroughly enjoy any show that involves a competition and have watched every sport imaginable thanks to the two blessed channels of ESPN that have been piped into my TV since age 15. (Side note: Remember when ESPN2 first rolled out and it was only referred to as "The Deuce" and only on premium cable, like it was HBO or something? I honestly remember being envious of a kid in one of my classes because he had it and I was stuck with only one all sports channel. I think thats why I stopped hanging out with him. Will Corwin, now that ESPN2 is standard, we can be friends again.)
For example, I watch MTV's Real World/ Road Rules Challenge: The Gauntlet III and project which team is going to win. That's right, project, not guess. I know each of the contestant's skills and weaknesses and can closely predict how each are suited at the current challenge. Seriously. I'm not a spectator, I'm an analyst. Want to know what's going to happen? Here you go. The Veteran Team, which is unbelievably stacked but has more powder kegs than the spanish armada, is going to drop the next two-three women's duels in efforts to trim the fat. The women will counter at that point, but will probably not be too effective because the men are too strong. The only thing that could really derail them is after CT gets kicked off for hitting someone, Evan loses in the gauntlet by some miracle. The Rookies are screwed. Very screwed. They'll only win contests where A) the Vets toss them or B) having less people gives a distinct advantage. That's it. I would cut the check to the Vets tomorrow if I were running the show. It's all over but the shouting and the drama.
Here's what I want to get at though. Out of all the competition based shows, I think I'm best suited for American Gladiators or Are You Smarter Than a 5th Grader. Honestly, I could win both, in the same week. I would join Megan as the only multi-show winner. (With Kristie Jo's breakdown, she moves in front as the clear favorite in Rock of Love II, and earlier won Beauty and the Geek II. I'm not making this up. She picked up $125,000 for Beauty and will get Bret Micheals in Rock. Eat it Ken Jennings). I've thought about Jeopardy, and if it had been pre-mission I would have done excellent. The two years kind of knocked me out of the current events and I'm still getting back into form. Deal or No Deal is pure game theory with the key being not trying to get the million dollar case, but trying to max out the bid. You only need to keep three of the top eight dollar amounts and then eliminate all the lower ones until you have three tops amounts and two lower amounts left. This should give you a bid of around 200K. Take it and go. That's your magic number. If it ever cracks 250K, press the button like your life depended on it.
Pros vs Joes is out because they require more actual physical girth than I possess. Wheel of Fortune is for children and Razorback fans. (If you're wondering if I've done the hog call while wearing a plastic razorback on my head, the answer is emphatically yes, and the hog hangs on my wall this moment.) This leaves only AG and 5th grader as the best options. If I could I would join the next RR/RW challenge, but that requires logging a season in one of those shows prior. That would be fun, but a bit complicated after having been through the temple.
Here's what amazes me though. I think I have a better shot making AG, while I'm pretty sure I could take 5th grader, but won't make it. 5th grader is too hollywood-ized. They need intriguing backgrounds or overly animated contestants. The filtering process is much softer for AG. The physcial exam would be a test, but I'm supremely confident that I could properly prepare for it. Then, when I'm laying on top of foam blocks at the end of the eliminator, having Hulk Hogan call me brother, I'll know life can get no better. I just have to win. That's all. Word.
Thursday, February 7, 2008
He's Going The Distance, He's Going For Speed,
I'm a numbers guy. Always have been and pretty sure I always will be. It's just how things are cataloged upstairs. This date, that time, this many occurrences, it's how it goes in the noggin. It's likely because of my deep, passionate love for the baseball. There are two defining moments in my life which separate all events. The first is August 12, 1994. I wore black that day. I still wince at the calendar when it rolls around. The Baseball Strike. Not only did it cancel the World Series for the first time since World War II, but it single-handedly ruined my chances of finding a baseball loving girl. (tear)
The second is July 3, 2002. Coincidentally, also wore black, but this time it was a suit to go into the MTC. Everything I can remember is quickly slotted into whether it was pre-strike, post-strike/pre-mission, and post-mission. They are the benchmarks to which all other events are related.
This brings me to the real meaning of this post. I'm tired as all sin right now. I've spent every night the past week studying until at least 11 and getting up no later than 5:30. I've held hours like this often, but haven't spent them working and studying, usually they're just wasted. I'm pretty exhausted. However, this is moment that needs to be chronicled.
It's probably not something I'll share with the kids. I'm not even proud of it half the time. But it happened. Today, February 7, 2008 marks the thousandth day of being single and without any action. 1000. It looks a little more daunting when you type out the numerals, doesn't it? Go ahead if you want and crunch the number on that. Let it's sheer magnitude wash over you. Tomorrow it will be 143 consecutive weeks, and next week it will be 33 consecutive months.
To put it in scale, I personally know someone who left for his mission, came home, got engaged to a girl he didn't know before, and had it broken off all during my inactivity. It's that long.
Again, I'm only half proud of it. Part of me likes to think that no one has been up to snuff, or that I could end it if I wanted some random girl, but I'm too good for that. Yeah. Take that. The only question is how long will it go? I'm not chasing Ripken here, but how close will it get?
3-1 odds that it gets to 1100
6-1 says it'll hit 1250
10-1 says it hits 1461, or four years even with leap day.
Even that will be 1171 days short of Ripken. Kind of amazing how he was able to do that. So yeah, we're not calling guinness on this, but it is intriguing.
The follow up thought is, is posting this going to increase my chances of snapping the streak, or decrease them? I'm going to end this and let that soak in. Word.
The second is July 3, 2002. Coincidentally, also wore black, but this time it was a suit to go into the MTC. Everything I can remember is quickly slotted into whether it was pre-strike, post-strike/pre-mission, and post-mission. They are the benchmarks to which all other events are related.
This brings me to the real meaning of this post. I'm tired as all sin right now. I've spent every night the past week studying until at least 11 and getting up no later than 5:30. I've held hours like this often, but haven't spent them working and studying, usually they're just wasted. I'm pretty exhausted. However, this is moment that needs to be chronicled.
It's probably not something I'll share with the kids. I'm not even proud of it half the time. But it happened. Today, February 7, 2008 marks the thousandth day of being single and without any action. 1000. It looks a little more daunting when you type out the numerals, doesn't it? Go ahead if you want and crunch the number on that. Let it's sheer magnitude wash over you. Tomorrow it will be 143 consecutive weeks, and next week it will be 33 consecutive months.
To put it in scale, I personally know someone who left for his mission, came home, got engaged to a girl he didn't know before, and had it broken off all during my inactivity. It's that long.
Again, I'm only half proud of it. Part of me likes to think that no one has been up to snuff, or that I could end it if I wanted some random girl, but I'm too good for that. Yeah. Take that. The only question is how long will it go? I'm not chasing Ripken here, but how close will it get?
3-1 odds that it gets to 1100
6-1 says it'll hit 1250
10-1 says it hits 1461, or four years even with leap day.
Even that will be 1171 days short of Ripken. Kind of amazing how he was able to do that. So yeah, we're not calling guinness on this, but it is intriguing.
The follow up thought is, is posting this going to increase my chances of snapping the streak, or decrease them? I'm going to end this and let that soak in. Word.
Saturday, February 2, 2008
I'm ready to play, look at me, I could be, centerfield
On my shelf, I have nine books dedicated to medicine, eight based on business and businessmen, and seven on baseball. Those are kind of my priorities right now in life. (Well, besides religion. I have roughly twenty books not including scriptures or manuals, and no, I have not read them all, it's a little more than half.) Just to catch everyone up, I've been summarily rejected by all twenty med schools I applied to. Ok, I guess that's not official yet, but I've seen this movie before, and I know how it ends. Suffice it to say, I'm reapplying in June and if I have to show up outside the admissions office with a tent and two week supply of ramen to get in, then so be it. I'm going to be a doctor, it will just be one year later than originally planned. It's just what I'm built to do.
That's not what I want to hit on. You see, I spend approximately two hours daily talking, reading or listening about baseball, and now that I work for a minor league team, that is about to jump. So, with the Johan to the Mets deal solemnized by his passing a physical, it's time for a state of the union of baseball. I'm going to go ahead and list some predictions and we'll see how well they turn out at the all-star break, and then at the end of the season.
We'll start with the AL Central. And that is the end of my bias because simply put, the White Sox are not a playoff contention team this year. They probably won't be next year either for several reasons. I'd go into depth on them, but it just hurts too much. I have them pegged for a 78-win season. Yes, this means I'm saying they got marginally better, but certainly not demonstratively. The kings of this division will likely be the Tigers, and I'll slate them for 97-wins. Yes, I do realize that is about ten more than then had last year, but they did get much better with Dontrelle stepping in the three slot behind Bonderman and Verlander, he'll be an innings horse with moderate numbers. And putting Cabrera in at Third makes them a very potent offense. They're only knock on offense is that they only have two batters than can hit from the left side of the plate. They will have to handle with the loss of the unhittable Zumaya in the relief, department, but still this team is the team to beat in the two horse race that now is the AL-Central. The Indians will limp into the number two slot with 92-wins, and the Twins, without Santana and Garza, will rely on Liriano (just coming back from Tommy John) and Bonser to try and make something out of the season. Yep, they've got 71-wins, and the Royals will thank they're lucky stars when they win #63, and finish with 65 to avoid a 100-loss season.
As for the AL East, we'll start with the World Series champ Red Sox. I don't know how else to say this, and I dare anyone to refute this, but they look mighty good on paper to repeat as division champs and make a solid run at 100-wins. Beckett, Schilling Dice-K, Wakefield and Lester. Obviously, it does get weaker as you go along, but with Dice and Wake, you get proven innings chewers that rest your bullpen for Schilling and Lester, if necessary. That's their opening rotation, but I expect Lester to jump at least Wake, and probably Dice into the three spot, and then Buchholz taking the five spot away from Wake leaving their rotation Beckett, Schill, Lester, Dice, Buchholz. That's pretty dang good. The whole gang is back on offense with the only real concern is Lowell's performance in a non-contract year and his aging body. Yep, I'll pick them to take the division. Without hesitation. Of course, no AL East talk could be began or completed without in depth mention of the Yanks.
This is still a good team. Don't kid yourself into thinking otherwise. This however, is not a World Series Champion Caliber team. Not this year. For the three-four years following this one though, watch out. This year, they simply have too many young arms that they're are, wisely, going to protect. Their top five are Wang, who mundanely puts up solid numbers year in and year out, Pettitte, who will turn 36 early in the season and has back issues, Hughes, Chamberlain and Mussina. Ok Wang is solid. There's no reason to say anything other than he is the best proven pitcher in their rotation. I don't think this is debatable. You can chalk him up for upwards of 16 wins this season and the next five. Go ahead, and do it. Pettitte is good, but getting old. He had a good year last year, but he is losing some power and trying to become more of a control pitcher. He's a two, but a shakey two. Mussina is old, and sad to say, done. His ERA jumped a point and a half and struck out a little more than half of what he did last year in five less starts. The only reason he's even in there is because someone needs to handle innings instead of blowing out the young arms of the future. This brings me to Hughes, Chamberlain and Kennedy. Their potential is undeniable. Hughes was nothing less of outstanding in his rookie season, and Kennedy proved very service-able. Chamberlain, if you're still reading this baseball post, you know what Chamberlain did. Simply a sick stat line. .38 ERA, 34 K/6 BB/ 12 H in 24 Innings. That's Koufax in the World Series-esque. The problem is that each of them, and I support this decision whole-heartedly, will be on strict pitch counts. This will put a lot of stress on the bullpen and eventually Mussina. And removing Chamberlain, you're looking at Kyle Farnsworth, LaTroy Hawkins and two people no one other than Mike has probably heard about. Grim. Very Grim. The offense is still there, but it will not be as strong as it was. Posada had a career year. Coincidentally, he also was in a contract year. His average was 60 points better than his average and 50 points better than any of his past five seasons. He will come back down towards his normal levels. Giambi is... well he's off the books at the end of the year. The rest of the offense, collectively, will likely be second to none. Jeter, Cano, A-Rod, Matsui. These guys are kind of good at hitting. If by kind of good you mean near the leaders in most offenseive categories for their positions, and A-Rod, all of baseball. They will be saved by their offense and come in second with a 94-win season again. The Blue Jays are a couple deals away from being contenders, but those deals simply aren't out there right now. The Orioles and don't deserve mention and should be moved to triple-A. The Rays are the Wild Card in this division. Yes, I said that out loud, and it's not too shocking when you see the arms their putting on the bump. James Shields, Scott Kazmir and Matt Garza are three names that if you don't know by now, you should burn them into your memories. These guys will keep the Rays in contention much longer than they ever have been. I'm drinking the kool-aid on these guys, along with Upton and Crawford, and giving them 88-wins and third in the division.
The AL West is very interesting. The Angels dealt away their starting, all-star shortstop in Orlando Cabrera for Jon Garland. Yes it sounds good, talent for talent, but in LA, Garland will only be a third or fourth starter in moderately deep rotation. The hurt to their offense is not offset by the addition to their pitching. Regardless, I'll still take them to win this division. Look at their outfield for goodness sake. Left to right, it'll likely be Gary Matthews Jr, Torii Hunter, and Vlad Guerrero. Oh and if any of them get hurt, you have Reggie Willits filling in for any of them. That my friends is the best outfield in ball. Couple that with a stellar bullpen in Shields, Speier and K-Rod, and these are your AL West champs again with 95 wins. Oakland would have been number two next year, except for the departures of Dan Haren, Nick Swisher and, eventually, Huston Street. Thank you Billy Beane for your unfailing commitment to being a better than average team without a real shot at winning in the post season. Enjoy your 80-win season. Seattle is a mess, but they'll be second by defauly with 86-wins, and Texas will celebrate the $21M savings they got from A-Rod opting out only to resign, by completing a scintillating 77 win campaign.
To Recap reall quick:
AL East: Boston, New York, Tampa, Toronto, Baltimore
AL Central: Detroit, Cleveland, Chicago, Minnesota, Kansas City
AL West: Los Angeles, Seattle, Oakland, Texas
Wild Card going to New York. (Believe me, I regret typing it as much as you regret reading it, but it's just how things are looking to play out)
As for the NL, there are two, count them, two, teams that will matter at the end of the year. They are the Mets and DiamondBacks. The Dbacks won their division by virtue of a better heads-up record against the surprise team of September/October Rockies. They decided to go out and get one of the top arms in the game by trading for Dan Haren.
The Mets, still aching over their historic collapse, got the best pitcher in the game for four nobodies. Yes, they paid him an exorbitant amount of money, but that will not affect their future personnel decisions. They're going to be good. Very good.
The rest can squabble over the Wild Card and the NL Central winner will be lucky to have more than 85-wins. For the sake of prognostication though:
AL East Champ: Mets
Central: Cubs
West: DBacks
Wild Card: Braves (Welcome back)
This means your playoff opening round match-ups will be:
AL
Boston-Los Angeles (Boston in 5)
Detroit- New York (Detroit in 4)
NL
Mets-Cubs (Mets in 3)
DBacks-Braves (DBacks in 3)
LCS Round
AL
Boston-Detroit (Boston in 6)
NL
Mets-DBacks (Mets in 7)
World Series
Boston-Mets (Boston in 6)
Simply put, Boston has the most proven talent, with the lowest amount of expected drop-off, and is relying on the least amount of possibilities to win. My only hope is that this will spark the Red Sox Backlash that is desperately overdue. Word.
That's not what I want to hit on. You see, I spend approximately two hours daily talking, reading or listening about baseball, and now that I work for a minor league team, that is about to jump. So, with the Johan to the Mets deal solemnized by his passing a physical, it's time for a state of the union of baseball. I'm going to go ahead and list some predictions and we'll see how well they turn out at the all-star break, and then at the end of the season.
We'll start with the AL Central. And that is the end of my bias because simply put, the White Sox are not a playoff contention team this year. They probably won't be next year either for several reasons. I'd go into depth on them, but it just hurts too much. I have them pegged for a 78-win season. Yes, this means I'm saying they got marginally better, but certainly not demonstratively. The kings of this division will likely be the Tigers, and I'll slate them for 97-wins. Yes, I do realize that is about ten more than then had last year, but they did get much better with Dontrelle stepping in the three slot behind Bonderman and Verlander, he'll be an innings horse with moderate numbers. And putting Cabrera in at Third makes them a very potent offense. They're only knock on offense is that they only have two batters than can hit from the left side of the plate. They will have to handle with the loss of the unhittable Zumaya in the relief, department, but still this team is the team to beat in the two horse race that now is the AL-Central. The Indians will limp into the number two slot with 92-wins, and the Twins, without Santana and Garza, will rely on Liriano (just coming back from Tommy John) and Bonser to try and make something out of the season. Yep, they've got 71-wins, and the Royals will thank they're lucky stars when they win #63, and finish with 65 to avoid a 100-loss season.
As for the AL East, we'll start with the World Series champ Red Sox. I don't know how else to say this, and I dare anyone to refute this, but they look mighty good on paper to repeat as division champs and make a solid run at 100-wins. Beckett, Schilling Dice-K, Wakefield and Lester. Obviously, it does get weaker as you go along, but with Dice and Wake, you get proven innings chewers that rest your bullpen for Schilling and Lester, if necessary. That's their opening rotation, but I expect Lester to jump at least Wake, and probably Dice into the three spot, and then Buchholz taking the five spot away from Wake leaving their rotation Beckett, Schill, Lester, Dice, Buchholz. That's pretty dang good. The whole gang is back on offense with the only real concern is Lowell's performance in a non-contract year and his aging body. Yep, I'll pick them to take the division. Without hesitation. Of course, no AL East talk could be began or completed without in depth mention of the Yanks.
This is still a good team. Don't kid yourself into thinking otherwise. This however, is not a World Series Champion Caliber team. Not this year. For the three-four years following this one though, watch out. This year, they simply have too many young arms that they're are, wisely, going to protect. Their top five are Wang, who mundanely puts up solid numbers year in and year out, Pettitte, who will turn 36 early in the season and has back issues, Hughes, Chamberlain and Mussina. Ok Wang is solid. There's no reason to say anything other than he is the best proven pitcher in their rotation. I don't think this is debatable. You can chalk him up for upwards of 16 wins this season and the next five. Go ahead, and do it. Pettitte is good, but getting old. He had a good year last year, but he is losing some power and trying to become more of a control pitcher. He's a two, but a shakey two. Mussina is old, and sad to say, done. His ERA jumped a point and a half and struck out a little more than half of what he did last year in five less starts. The only reason he's even in there is because someone needs to handle innings instead of blowing out the young arms of the future. This brings me to Hughes, Chamberlain and Kennedy. Their potential is undeniable. Hughes was nothing less of outstanding in his rookie season, and Kennedy proved very service-able. Chamberlain, if you're still reading this baseball post, you know what Chamberlain did. Simply a sick stat line. .38 ERA, 34 K/6 BB/ 12 H in 24 Innings. That's Koufax in the World Series-esque. The problem is that each of them, and I support this decision whole-heartedly, will be on strict pitch counts. This will put a lot of stress on the bullpen and eventually Mussina. And removing Chamberlain, you're looking at Kyle Farnsworth, LaTroy Hawkins and two people no one other than Mike has probably heard about. Grim. Very Grim. The offense is still there, but it will not be as strong as it was. Posada had a career year. Coincidentally, he also was in a contract year. His average was 60 points better than his average and 50 points better than any of his past five seasons. He will come back down towards his normal levels. Giambi is... well he's off the books at the end of the year. The rest of the offense, collectively, will likely be second to none. Jeter, Cano, A-Rod, Matsui. These guys are kind of good at hitting. If by kind of good you mean near the leaders in most offenseive categories for their positions, and A-Rod, all of baseball. They will be saved by their offense and come in second with a 94-win season again. The Blue Jays are a couple deals away from being contenders, but those deals simply aren't out there right now. The Orioles and don't deserve mention and should be moved to triple-A. The Rays are the Wild Card in this division. Yes, I said that out loud, and it's not too shocking when you see the arms their putting on the bump. James Shields, Scott Kazmir and Matt Garza are three names that if you don't know by now, you should burn them into your memories. These guys will keep the Rays in contention much longer than they ever have been. I'm drinking the kool-aid on these guys, along with Upton and Crawford, and giving them 88-wins and third in the division.
The AL West is very interesting. The Angels dealt away their starting, all-star shortstop in Orlando Cabrera for Jon Garland. Yes it sounds good, talent for talent, but in LA, Garland will only be a third or fourth starter in moderately deep rotation. The hurt to their offense is not offset by the addition to their pitching. Regardless, I'll still take them to win this division. Look at their outfield for goodness sake. Left to right, it'll likely be Gary Matthews Jr, Torii Hunter, and Vlad Guerrero. Oh and if any of them get hurt, you have Reggie Willits filling in for any of them. That my friends is the best outfield in ball. Couple that with a stellar bullpen in Shields, Speier and K-Rod, and these are your AL West champs again with 95 wins. Oakland would have been number two next year, except for the departures of Dan Haren, Nick Swisher and, eventually, Huston Street. Thank you Billy Beane for your unfailing commitment to being a better than average team without a real shot at winning in the post season. Enjoy your 80-win season. Seattle is a mess, but they'll be second by defauly with 86-wins, and Texas will celebrate the $21M savings they got from A-Rod opting out only to resign, by completing a scintillating 77 win campaign.
To Recap reall quick:
AL East: Boston, New York, Tampa, Toronto, Baltimore
AL Central: Detroit, Cleveland, Chicago, Minnesota, Kansas City
AL West: Los Angeles, Seattle, Oakland, Texas
Wild Card going to New York. (Believe me, I regret typing it as much as you regret reading it, but it's just how things are looking to play out)
As for the NL, there are two, count them, two, teams that will matter at the end of the year. They are the Mets and DiamondBacks. The Dbacks won their division by virtue of a better heads-up record against the surprise team of September/October Rockies. They decided to go out and get one of the top arms in the game by trading for Dan Haren.
The Mets, still aching over their historic collapse, got the best pitcher in the game for four nobodies. Yes, they paid him an exorbitant amount of money, but that will not affect their future personnel decisions. They're going to be good. Very good.
The rest can squabble over the Wild Card and the NL Central winner will be lucky to have more than 85-wins. For the sake of prognostication though:
AL East Champ: Mets
Central: Cubs
West: DBacks
Wild Card: Braves (Welcome back)
This means your playoff opening round match-ups will be:
AL
Boston-Los Angeles (Boston in 5)
Detroit- New York (Detroit in 4)
NL
Mets-Cubs (Mets in 3)
DBacks-Braves (DBacks in 3)
LCS Round
AL
Boston-Detroit (Boston in 6)
NL
Mets-DBacks (Mets in 7)
World Series
Boston-Mets (Boston in 6)
Simply put, Boston has the most proven talent, with the lowest amount of expected drop-off, and is relying on the least amount of possibilities to win. My only hope is that this will spark the Red Sox Backlash that is desperately overdue. Word.
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