NL East
Philadelphia Phillies- Hard to pick against the 4 aces (Ok 2 aces and a pair of kings), however, with Utley to miss extended amounts of time, Rollins not what he was a couple years ago, Werth gone and Howard stuck in a decline, these guys are going to need to win a lot a of one run games. Add in that Lidge is going to miss the first month and the closer duties are falling to Jose Contreras, and this division is going to be extremely tight over the season. Still, I'll take great pitching and mediocre hitting over just about anything. 96 wins
Atlanta Braves - A lot riding on whether Chipper can be productive. Still have good arms around Hudson and Hanson, and even Jair Jurrjens is a decent back end of the rotation guy. They should be competitive, but they're going to fall short when Chipper has to walk away around the All star break. 92 wins.
Florida Marlins - This is the team that needs to decide quickly what it's future is going to be. They're in a a division that next year is going to become really strong with Philly, Atlanta and, gulp, Washington battling it out. I like Johnson and Nolasco, and Stanton can rake the ball. They have young talent, and need to decide whether to stick with this set, or keep building for later. Even though I have them third in the division, I feel they have the second best shot of winning the division. They have the best and most chances to catch lightning in a bottle for a season. However, you still have to catch it, and I don't think they will catch enough. 87 wins.
Washington Nationals - 2011 will just be a preview of what's to come. They added Werth, are taking their time with Strasburg and Harper, and preparing for a massive 2012. I love this team for next year. This year, not enough firepower with Werth being the only start making the opening day roster. 79 wins.
New York Mets - My goodness, how far they have fallen. Let me put it to you this way. Three years ago, Johan Santana was going in the first round of fantasy drafts. In my last draft, he didn't get picked. In a deeper draft I was in, with 14 teams, he went in the 300's. He isn't what he used to be, but who is going to drive in any runs for him? Just a train wreck from top to bottom here. I genuinely feel bad for David Wright at this point. 68 wins.
NL Central - Much like the AL Central, a truly weak division. When the Cardinals can lose their #2 pitcher and are still very much in contention, you're division is weak.
Cincinnati Reds - Nothing broke here, nothing to fix. I do look forward to seeing Aroldis Chapman more, because, well 105 mph heat with a 97 mph slider is just jaw-dropping. It's like watching Jimmer hoist up 28 foot bombs. Gets me out of my seat. Out of the two drafts I was in, he was the only RP I picked up out of choice, not just to fill a roster spot. 96 wins.
St. Louis Cardinals - Pujols. In a contract year. I don't know if he thinks along the lines of big dollars, but if he does, give him the triple crown right now. Carpenter is pitching well, but behind him there isn't much depth. Still, weak division, so they might just steal this one. 90 wins.
Milwaukee Brewers - Fielder is going to rock the ball in his contract year, and Greinke should be able to continue feasting on mediocre teams like he did in the AL Central. At least, once he gets off the DL from his pickup game of basketball. 88 wins.
Chicago Cubs - Not much to like here. Aramis Ramirez laid a turd last year. Alfonso Soriano is battling Jason Giambi for worst contract ever. Zambrano pitches well, when he's not going crazy. Sitll, 4th in their division. 80 wins.
Houston Astros - Even less to like here. 76 wins.
Pittsburgh Pirates - I think I would be willing to pay $1 a game to be a season ticket holder for them, but only if I could renew at that price every year for the next 100. 1 penny more than that, and I would pass. 64 wins.
NL West
San Francisco Giants - Another team with great pitching, but they also have good hitting. I think they'll take this division, but it will be a close one. Favorite part about my fantasy drafts: getting Buster Posey in both of my leagues. 93 wins
Colorado Rockies - Good pitching behind Jimenez and De La Rosa, and you have to feel good about having Tulo and CarGo in the lineup. Personally, big fan of Dexter Fowler. I like my CF speedy with solid batting averages. 91 wins.
Arizona Diamondbacks - Just another year in the desert for this team that seems to have no clue what it is trying to do for it's future. 83 wins.
San Diego Padres - Could turn things up, but probably won't. 77 wins.
Los Angeles Dodgers - Kershaw and Billingsley would make you think that this team has a decent chance, but they don't. No pop in the lineup, and a front office that is in complete disarray. 75 wins, and I'm being generous.
AL East - It ain't what it used to be. It used to be that this division was far away the best one in baseball. It just isn't so anymore.
Boston Red Sox - I went back and forth between the Yankees and them for the top spot, and might even switch it again before this posts, but for now, I'm taking Boston and here's why. Lester is pitching great. Beckett is still pitching well, but not what he used to be. Lackey is a 3 starter, and pitches like it. While I don't trust Papelbon, he still gets the job done. (PS I love that they picked up Bobby Jenks, but I only love it because it means my White Sox don't have him anymore. Was great in 2005-2006. Has slowly scared me more and more each year since.) They added Adrian Gonzalez, who will have a big year, but knowing that they more or less had to cut Beltre to get him, the added production from that move will not be that drastic. I can't believe I'm saying this, but the Crawford signing may put them over the top, even though he's horribly overpaid. 97 wins.
New York Yankees - Had they landed Cliff Lee, they would be the favorite for the entire American League. Since they didn't land anyone, they land themselves here in the 2 spot. When you're season is hinging on AJ Burnett returning to form, and don't kid yourselves, it really is at this point, you're in trouble. CC is great, and I am believing more and more in Phil Hughes. The offense is still there, and Granderson might just have a great year if he continues hitting like he did after the all-star break. Still, too many question marks and a very shaky back end of the rotation and bullpen. Just like every year. 95 wins.
Toronto Blue Jays - Why them and not the Rays? Mostly because I think they can put it together, and the players they traded away won't be as detrimental as the ones the Rays lost. Don't think they'll contend, but they might look like it during the first month. 88 wins.
Tampa Bay Rays - Just lost too many pieces to be considered contenders again. And that stadium, my goodness. I do discount them because they play in a dump that never sells out. Not even for the World Series. 85 wins.
Baltimore Orioles - Lot of young talent and Showalter can work magic. Just don't think this is the year for it to happen 80 wins.
AL Central - Otherwise known as the weakest division in all of baseball
Chicago White Sox - Not just because I'm a homer for them, but because Danks, Buehrle, Jackson, Floyd and eventually Peavy make the best rotation in this division. We added Adam Dunn to provide the power we lost from Jermaine Dye (Who still hasn't signed with a team since we released him after the 2009 season) and Jim Thome. Hopefully, Quentin can finally rebound, and Konerko can come close to the career year he had last year. Either way, in this land of the bland, the one eyed man is king. 89 wins.
Minnesota Twins - The first time I saw Liriano pitch was back in 2006. I remember watching this big guy dominate batters. And then they would cut to Johan Santana in the bull pen. All I could think was, glad we won it all in 2005, cause we're screwed for the next decade. A trade of Santana and some injuries to Liriano erased that nightmare, but Liriano is back in top form, and with a resurgent Carl Pavano, the Twins are going to be nipping at Chicago's heels all season long. I just don't think Thome is going to have the year he had last year, and Morneau is one dink on the head from retirement. Mauer is still the best catcher in ball, but you need 8 other guys in the lineup. 86 wins.
Detroit Tigers - Verlander still has the prettiest pitching motion I've ever seen, and Cabrera figured out the weight thing, not quite the DUI thing, but one at a time for the guy. Problem is, there isn't a whole lot beyond those two on this club. A couple young guys that might break out, but nothing to bet on. 81 wins.
Kansas City Royals - One of the few teams where finishing fourth is going to be considered a great success. Such a young talented team, they're bound to do something this year. For their sake, I hope they're able to develop a young nucleus and keep them for a decade. I doubt it though. 78 wins.
Cleveland Indians - Name me three Indians right now. Jake Westbroook, Grady Sizemore and... exactly. 67 wins.
AL West - Or the "We used to be good" division
Texas Rangers - Even without Cliff Lee, these guys have to be the favorites. Nobody in the division got better, and no adding Vernon Wells's massive contract does not in any way make you better. Plus, they still have the young hitter, even Michael Young, but he might be a little disgruntled after all the trade talk. 90 wins.
Oakland Athletics - I don't have a lot of logical reasons for them to be here. I just couldn't pick the Angels. 82 wins.
Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim - Not much to see here. However, of all the picks, I feel this one is easily the one most likely to be wrong, because there won't be much separating them from the Athletics. 81 wins.
Seattle Mariners - Ok, they're still bad, but they can't be as bad as they were last year. That was the worst team hitting since the DH. Still, they'll be last in the west. 70 wins.
To recap: (Playoff Teams)
NL East: Phillies, Braves, Marlins, Nationals, Mets
NL Central: Reds, Cardinals, Brewers, Cubs, Astros, Pirates
NL West: Giants, Rockies, Diamondbacks, Padres, Dodgers
AL East: Red Sox, Yankees, Blue Jays, Rays, Orioles
AL Central: White Sox, Twins, Tigers, Royals, Indians
AL West: Rangers, Athletics, Angels, Mariners
Phillies over Giants, Reds over Braves; Phillies over Reds
White Sox over Red Sox, Yankees over Rangers; Yankees over White Sox
Phillies over Yankees
AL MVP: Alex Rodriguez, Miguel Cabrera, Adrian Gonzalez
NL MVP: Pujols, Votto, Fielder
AL Cy Young: Felix Hernandez, CC Sabathia, Jon Lester
NL Cy Young: Halladay, Cliff Lee, Lincecum
AL All Star Starters - Adrian Gonzalez, Robinson Cano, Derek Jeter, Alex Rodriguez, Joe Mauer, Carl Crawford, Curtis Granderson, Ichiro, Felix Hernandez. (If there's a DH - Teixeira)
NL All Star Starters- Albert Pujols, Utley, Reyes, Beltre, Buter Posey, Werth, Victorino, Mike Stanton, Roy Halladay. (DH- Joey Votto)
There you have it. This is what you should have put down if you wanted to have a chance at winning my money. I look forward to collecting all of your pretty signed dollar bills.
Word.
4 comments:
I certainly hope the Angels do prove you wrong this season!
I also hope that Chipper Jones comes through for the Braves.
Annnnnd of course I hope that the Yankees die a horrible and violent baseball death.
P.S. The only baseball card I've ever owned = Chipper Jones.
This is more than information about baseball than my brain could ever hold. Not that my brain can't hold information, just that it isn't equipped for so much information on baseball alone...
I just watched an entire 60 minutes piece of Pujols. He's a beast and despite our weak start, I think big things are in store for my Cards this year. Word.
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